:::

俄外交手腕能否終結敘利亞內戰?

在哈薩克首都阿斯塔納舉行的會談雖達成多方共識,但在參與者各有各的盤算下,真正的和平何時到來仍是個大問號。(法新社資料照片)
在哈薩克首都阿斯塔納舉行的會談雖達成多方共識,但在參與者各有各的盤算下,真正的和平何時到來仍是個大問號。(法新社資料照片)

◎王柏文

 Potentially the best result emerging from the recent Syrian peace conference in Astana, Kazakhstan, is the agreement of Turkey, Russia, and Iran to oversee a reduction of hostilities in northwestern Syria. Such an outcome would mitigate a humanitarian catastrophe, enable nationalistic Syrian rebels to separate themselves from al-Qaeda's Jabhat Fatah el-Sham (JFS), and perhaps set the stage for useful, all-Syrian negotiations in Geneva.

在哈薩克首都阿斯塔納舉行的敘利亞和談中,能夠得到的最好結果,就是土耳其、俄羅斯以及伊朗三方達成在敘國北部共同監督、降低戰爭行為的決議。這個結果能夠大幅減輕人道災難的情形,也讓心繫敘利亞的反抗軍能夠和蓋達組織分支「征服沙姆陣線」(原為努斯拉陣線)脫鉤,甚至能夠促成敘利亞各界在日內瓦進行和談。

 Astana was about Moscow, Ankara, and Tehran trying to consolidate a common approach to calming and ultimately ending the Syrian crisis. The three parties have differing motives. Are they operationally compatible?

 阿斯塔納的決議是莫斯科、安卡拉以及德黑蘭三方試圖鞏固共識,穩定局勢並且最終結束敘利亞內戰的產物。然而各抱著不同打算的三方勢力,是否能夠合作?

 Russia's President Vladimir Putin took full advantage of American foreign policy failure in Syria to bolster himself domestically and occupy center stage in Syria, both militarily and diplomatically. The point Putin was able to make to the Russian public was critical: we have defeated an American-abetted attempt at regime change and we are back, after decades of humiliation, as a great power.

 俄羅斯總統蒲亭充分得利於美國對敘政策的失敗,不僅國內的支持度獲得提升,在敘利亞無論是軍事或外交上也扮演了中心角色。而蒲亭也得以對民眾進行具煽動性的宣傳:俄羅斯擊敗了由美國支持、試圖推翻政權的勢力,在經過數十年的羞辱後,俄羅斯以強權之姿重返國際舞台。

 Surely Putin has given some thought to what might come after a successful military campaign. Taking a lesson from American failures in Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011 – and perhaps from one unfolding now in eastern Syria – Russia knows about the importance of post-conflict stabilization. Although armed conflict continues at decreased levels, Moscow now seeks diplomatically to consolidate the military gains secured by its air campaign in coordination with Iranian-directed ground operations involving Shia foreign fighters mainly from Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

 在蒲亭的軍事介入後,將會產生何種情況有許多前例可循。以美國在2003年的伊拉克以及2011年的利比亞的失敗,甚至以尚未結束的敘東情勢為師,俄羅斯對於衝突後穩定情勢的重要性了然於胸。即便目前仍有小規模的交火,但莫斯科已開始透過外交手段,鞏固其以空中武力,與伊朗所支持、來自黎巴嫩、伊拉克以及阿富汗的什葉派民兵所共同獲致的軍事成果。

 For Tehran, the uniqueness of the Assad regime is its willingness to subordinate itself completely to Iran on all matters related to Hezbollah. Hezbollah's ability to dominate Lebanon and threaten Israel depends, in Iran's view, on a secure Syrian hinterland and a compliant Syrian government.

 對於德黑蘭而言,阿塞德政權的獨特性,就在其對「真主黨」的相關事務,向來惟伊朗馬首是瞻。而在伊朗眼中,「真主黨」宰制黎巴嫩、威脅以色列的能力也就來自於安全的敘利亞腹地,以及順從的敘利亞政權。

 Ankara has no interest at all in the Assad clique clinging to power in all or part of Syria. Syrians aside, Turks have paid the highest price for the sanguinary political survival strategy of the Assad regime. From Ankara's perspective Syria will remain in ruins, hemorrhaging humanity for as long as the regime exercises power.

 對於阿塞德與其朋黨在敘利亞全境或部分區域掌權,安卡拉方面並不在意。除了敘利亞平民之外,土耳其對阿塞德政權求生的血腥手段付出了最多代價。對安卡拉來說,只要阿塞德掌權一天,敘利亞就會深陷血腥人道危機之中,與廢墟無異。

 If Ankara and Moscow are on the same page in terms of marginalizing Iran's Syrian tool, then Washington's support is merited and potentially important. For the Obama administration, getting and keeping a nuclear agreement with Iran dictated speaking loudly without a stick in Syria. Presumably the Trump administration – even if it elects to respect the nuclear accord – will not be so well-disposed toward Iranian domination of Syria.

 若安卡拉與莫斯科對將等同於伊朗魁儡的敘利亞政權邊緣化存有共識,那麼華府的支持無論在實質上或是象徵意義上都至關重要。歐巴馬政府將與伊朗達成並且維持核子協議的進行,視作對敘利亞的當頭棒喝,而繼任的川普政府,就算選擇維持協議,估計也不會對在伊朗節制下的敘利亞好言以對。

(節譯自Defense News網站)

友善列印

相關新聞

熱門新聞