■孫百順

原文：

 Russian President Vladimir Putin may have expected a quick victory when launching his invasion of Ukraine, now almost two years ago. But with as many as 300,000 Russian troops killed or wounded and the thousands of Russian weapons expended on the battlefield, Russia is now gearing up for a long war.

 The Russian government proposed a new budget that shows the Kremlin is mobilizing its economy for a long war of attrition. Defense spending in the new budget will account for 29.4% of Russia's total budget expenditure in 2024.but there are questions over whether the Kremlin can find the funds and if Russia's defense industry can deliver.

 The Kremlin started the war with a formidable arsenal, outnumbering Ukraine's air, land and navy capabilities, which initially led many Western observers to believe the Russian military would quickly overpower Ukraine. Yet Russian losses in the war have been staggering, forcing Russia to pull aging equipment from its warehouses.

 Furthermore, replacing equipment is challenging because higher-end Russian weapons systems have traditionally depended on critical components imported from the West.

 Russia is also trying to increase the domestic production of military hardware, including tanks, rocket launchers, artillery and missiles by more than twofold and, in certain cases, by tenfold at least.

中譯：

 俄國總統蒲亭在入侵烏克蘭時，曾以為可速戰速決取得勝利。如今已2年了，俄軍在戰場上死傷30萬人，耗損數千件武器裝備，目前正準備打一場長期戰爭。

 俄羅斯政府提出一項新預算案，顯示其正啟動戰時經濟，進行長期消耗戰。新預算案占2024年總預算支出的29.4%。現在問題來了，就是俄羅斯能否覓得這筆經費，以及國防工業是否有能力支應。

 俄羅斯在發動戰爭時，以強大軍火庫存量和凌駕烏克蘭的陸、海、空戰力，使西方觀察家一度認為俄軍可快速取得勝利；令人感到震驚的是，俄軍的損失已迫使其動用庫存老舊裝備以支應作戰。

 其次則是因為較尖端武器系統所需零附件，傳統上須仰賴西方進口，再加上制裁和出口管制，限制其取得的管道，導致裝備替換困難。

 俄羅斯也嘗試增加國內軍事裝備的生產，包括戰車、火箭發射裝置、火砲和飛彈至少須增產逾2倍，某些項目甚至必須至少達10倍。